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Dear readers,
The coronavirus pandemic has brought considerable restrictions to our everyday lives and the economy. The resulting uncertainty is also visible in the Euro Score, which declined significantly in the first and second quarters. In the middle of the year, an initial recovery was seen in all countries monitored. This trend is also reflected in the business indicators. They had to accept significant slumps at the beginning of the pandemic, but companies are now assessing the current situation and economic development more positively again. Nevertheless, some significant differences can be noted between the countries. While the REECOX Germany has already returned to its pre-crisis level, the other countries monitored by REECOX have not yet been able to do the same. In addition, the infection rates have risen considerably in the past few weeks. This has the potential to quickly offset the positive development seen in the summer months. The challenge now is to contain the spread of infection as quickly as possible, as the long-term impact on the economy also depends on this.
Kind regards,
Your Andreas Rehfus
Contact
Mr Andreas Rehfus
Member of the Board of Managing Directors
As a result of the coronavirus crisis, the first half of 2020 was characterised by a general economic downturn, which is also reflected in the dynamics of the Euro Score. The positive trends observed towards the end of the second quarter continued throughout the third quarter. However, the upward trend slowed down in September (+0.8 %) after a relatively strong July (+4.1 %) and August (+3.8 %). Overall, growth stood at 8.9 %, bringing the Euro Score up to 222 points and helping it to nearly match its pre-crisis levels.
Deutsche Hypo Euro-Score
A recovery in the German real estate sector was already noticeable in the second quarter. This trend accelerated in the third quarter, allowing the REECOX Germany to temporarily reach its pre-crisis level. At 10.1 %, the REECOX UK experienced the strongest growth. However, this growth must be seen in the context of the double-digit and even stronger decline in the previous quarter, which puts this development into perspective. The REECOX Spain showed a comparatively weak performance, increasing by only 3.2 % in the third quarter in light of the strong upward trend overall. The figures in France (+6.4 %), Poland (+6.8 %) and the Netherlands (+8.6 %) were in the mid range of the overall positive trend, but were not yet able to return to pre-crisis levels.
| Country | Stock Index | Real Estate Economy Index | Economic Indicator | Base Interest Rate | Interest Rate 10-Year Government Bonds | REECOX Q2-2020 / Q3-2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DE | up | up | upup | eq | eq | upup |
GB | do | do | upup | eq | eq | upup |
PL | do | up | upup | eq | eq | upup |
NL | do | dodo | upup | eq | do | upup |
FR | do | do | upup | eq | do | upup |
ES | do | do | upup | eq | do | up |
