Country Report Poland Q2-2019
“Poland will continue to benefit from the relocation of companies as a result of Brexit and PPPs.”

Dear readers,

The gains the Polish Real Estate Economy Index made in the first quarter of 2019 were lost again in the second quarter. The Deutsche Hypo REECOX for Poland therefore remains at the high level seen at the start of the year. Even though individual REECOX indicators, including share indices and the business climate indicator, are currently displaying contrary trends, we can conclude that Poland’s real estate market remains in good shape. That was confirmed by a study recently published by Deutsche Hypo. It found that investor demand for properties in Warsaw and regional markets such as Kraków, Wrocław or Tri-City is consistently high. Because, in the future, Poland will continue to benefit from the relocation of companies as a result of Brexit and the government’s plans to promote public-private partnerships (PPPs), I am convinced that the Polish real estate market will continue to grow. However, the effects of elections in October remain to be seen.


Your Beata Latoszek

Contact

Ms Beata Latoszek
Managing Director Poland

Phone: +48 22 828 02 53
E-mail: Beata.Latoszek@Deutsche-Hypo.de

Polish Real Estate Economy Index maintains its high level

The polish Real Estate Economy Index continued its stable development (-0.4 %, 186.8 points) in the second quarter of 2019. Following an upward trend that lasted until the end of 2017, when the index reached its highest level since the end of the financial crisis, that high level has almost been maintained in Poland, while there was a negative trend in most of the other real estate markets observed by the REECOX.

Slight rise in share indices

There were no marked changes in the input variables in the second quarter. Stock market development was stable or positive. While the Polish leading share index WIG 20 and the real estate share index WIG Developers rose (+0.7 % and +1.5 % respectively) the business climate as measured by the Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) reflected increased scepticism: it developed negatively for the second consecutive quarter, falling to 103 points (-1.7 %).

Synopsis of Input Variables and Real Estate Economic Situations Q2-2019

Country

Stock Index

Real Estate Economy Index

Economic Indicator

Base Interest Rate

Interest Rate 10-Year Government Bonds

Q1-1904/1905/19Q2-19Delta (%)
Q1-19 / Q2-19
DE
up
do
dodo
eq
dodo
303.4
302.4
303.1
296.6
-2.2
GB
up
do
dodo
eq
dodo
205.1
203.7
196.2
198.9
-3.0
PL
eq
up
do
eq
dodo
187.6
185.5
183.7
186.8
-0.4
NL
up
do
do
eq
do
191.4
192.9
188.4
188.4
-1.6
FR
up
do
up
eq
dodo
228.3
230.4
230.4
231.8
1.5
ES
eq
up
do
eq
dodo
199.3
198.8
198.2
198.0
-0.7