Country Report Poland Q1-2022
“Brisk activity is apparent, particularly in the residential rental segment.”

Dear readers,

“The Polish real estate market is bucking the trend in these turbulent times. Right now, we see no signs of pessimism, with investor demand remaining high. Especially in the rental housing sector there is high activity due to rental housing only accounting for 10 % of the entire Polish housing market. Therefore, the potential in this sector is high. The high inflation rate, along with rising interest, is making it increasingly difficult for young people to buy property. What is more, Poland is seeing a massive wave of refugees from Ukraine, raising the necessity for new residential construction. Foreign investors are focusing on shopping centres in desirable locations in order to use the land to build housing. Astonishingly, they are now tearing down retail properties that are unprofitable despite being new in some cases. The combination of retail spaces on the ground floor and residential units on the floors above results in a good mix of usage types. A change can also be seen among domestic developers, who are undertaking major new construction projects despite the steep cost of zloty-based financing in order to offer housing rentals through their own platforms.”

 


Your Beata Latoszek

Contact

Ms Beata Latoszek
Managing Director Poland

Phone: +48 22 828 02 53
E-mail: Beata.Latoszek@Deutsche-Hypo.de

REECOX Poland starts the year with losses

After ending 2021 on stable footing, developments took a turn for the worse in the first quarter of 2022, with negative development compared to the previous month in January, February and March alike. The end result was a decline of 3.7 %, bringing the index down to 189.5 points.

 

Marked decline in business sentiment

The latest developments are attributable to the downward trend for all market indices taken into account. The performance of the Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) had a particularly marked effect on the negative results, falling continuously to 97.3 points in the first three months of 2022. This remarkable 8.4 % decline brought the ESI down to a level last seen in March 2021. The Polish blue-chip index WIG 20 also posted negative performance, losing 5.9 % quarter on quarter to stand at roughly 2,133 points. Moreover, the WIG Real Estate share index also continued to decline, dropping by 4.7 % compared to the previous quarter to finish March at 2,708.9 points. The downward trend was solely due to the losses seen in February (-8.2 %) despite the positive figures posted in January (+1.4 %) and March (+2.3 %).

Synopsis of Input Variables and Real Estate Economic Situations Q1-2022

Country

Stock Index

Real Estate Economy Index

Economic Indicator

Base Interest Rate

Interest Rate 10-Year Government Bonds

Q4-2101/2202/22Q1-22Delta (%)
Q4-21 / Q1-22
DE
dodo
do
dodo
eq
upup
343.4
340.1
334.3
320.6
-6.6
GB
up
do
upup
upup
upup
218.5
220.7
218.6
218.2
-0.1
PL
do
do
dodo
upup
upup
197.6
194.9
190.2
189.5
-4.1
NL
dodo
do
do
eq
upup
202.3
198.1
194.5
194.6
-3.8
FR
do
eq
dodo
eq
upup
251.6
248.7
246.7
240.0
-4.6
ES
do
up
dodo
eq
upup
186.0
186.1
187.0
181.6
-2.4