Country Report Poland Q3-2021
“Warehouses for light manufacturing are in greater demand, as more and more firms from China are beginning to set up production in Europe.”

Dear readers,

“The Polish real estate market recorded further improvement in the third quarter. The volume of transactions on the commercial real estate market reached approximately EUR 1.6 billion, up 50 % on the third quarter of 2020. The market forecast remains very positive because unofficial inflation is significantly above the officially reported level of 6 % and, due to a lack of investment alternatives, is fuelling greater interest in the Polish real estate market. Demand for logistics properties is still high. In particular, warehouses for light manufacturing are popular, as more and more firms from China are beginning to set up production in Europe. The Polish office market continues to be stable and is marked by consistently high returns, low vacancy rates and strong demand amid low supply. There is no sign of any price reductions in this segment. The situation for business hotels and shopping centres remains difficult. Further increases in the price of housing are expected in 2022; this sector still has upside potential compared with the western European market.”


Your Beata Latoszek

Contact

Ms Beata Latoszek
Managing Director Poland

Phone: +48 22 828 02 53
E-mail: Beata.Latoszek@Deutsche-Hypo.de

Polish Real Estate Economy Index virtually unchanged

After recording growth of 9.0 % in the previous quarter, the highest rate among the European markets monitored by REECOX, the Polish Real Estate Economy Index remained virtually unchanged in the third quarter. The index was up 0.4 % quarter on quarter to stay just under 200 (198.5 points).

Equity indices continue to post gains

The performance of the input variables was mixed in the third quarter. While the Polish blue-chip index WIG 20 and the real estate share index WIG Real Estate again increased (+4.1 % and +5.0 % respectively on the previous quarter), scepticism grew in the business climate measured by the Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI): the beginning of the third quarter saw a slight decline of 0.7 % – a trend that continued in August (-1.6 %). The mood brightened somewhat in September (+0.6 %). The ESI closed the quarter at 105.1 points, down 1.7 % on Q2.

Synopsis of Input Variables and Real Estate Economic Situations Q3-2021

Country

Stock Index

Real Estate Economy Index

Economic Indicator

Base Interest Rate

Interest Rate 10-Year Government Bonds

Q2-2107/2108/21Q3-21Delta (%)
Q2-21 / Q3-21
DE
do
do
eq
eq
eq
356.4
360.1
361.7
354.5
-0.5
GB
eq
up
up
eq
eq
219.9
222.8
222.9
222.9
1.4
PL
up
up
do
eq
up
197.8
198.1
198.7
198.5
0.4
NL
up
do
do
eq
do
204.3
205.5
204.6
203.3
-0.5
FR
eq
do
eq
eq
do
245.0
250.5
247.7
243.4
-0.7
ES
eq
eq
up
eq
do
183.4
184.9
184.7
186.0
1.4