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Dear readers,
The gains the Polish Real Estate Economy Index made in the first quarter of 2019 were lost again in the second quarter. The Deutsche Hypo REECOX for Poland therefore remains at the high level seen at the start of the year. Even though individual REECOX indicators, including share indices and the business climate indicator, are currently displaying contrary trends, we can conclude that Poland’s real estate market remains in good shape. That was confirmed by a study recently published by Deutsche Hypo. It found that investor demand for properties in Warsaw and regional markets such as Kraków, Wrocław or Tri-City is consistently high. Because, in the future, Poland will continue to benefit from the relocation of companies as a result of Brexit and the government’s plans to promote public-private partnerships (PPPs), I am convinced that the Polish real estate market will continue to grow. However, the effects of elections in October remain to be seen.
Your Beata Latoszek
Contact
Ms Beata Latoszek
Managing Director Poland
Phone: +48 22 828 02 53
E-mail: Beata.Latoszek@Deutsche-Hypo.de
The polish Real Estate Economy Index continued its stable development (-0.4 %, 186.8 points) in the second quarter of 2019. Following an upward trend that lasted until the end of 2017, when the index reached its highest level since the end of the financial crisis, that high level has almost been maintained in Poland, while there was a negative trend in most of the other real estate markets observed by the REECOX.
There were no marked changes in the input variables in the second quarter. Stock market development was stable or positive. While the Polish leading share index WIG 20 and the real estate share index WIG Developers rose (+0.7 % and +1.5 % respectively) the business climate as measured by the Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) reflected increased scepticism: it developed negatively for the second consecutive quarter, falling to 103 points (-1.7 %).
Country | Stock Index | Real Estate Economy Index | Economic Indicator | Base Interest Rate | Interest Rate 10-Year Government Bonds | Q1-19 | 04/19 | 05/19 | Q2-19 | Delta (%) Q1-19 / Q2-19 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DE | up | do | dodo | eq | dodo | 303.4 | 302.4 | 303.1 | 296.6 | -2.2 |
GB | up | do | dodo | eq | dodo | 205.1 | 203.7 | 196.2 | 198.9 | -3.0 |
PL | eq | up | do | eq | dodo | 187.6 | 185.5 | 183.7 | 186.8 | -0.4 |
NL | up | do | do | eq | do | 191.4 | 192.9 | 188.4 | 188.4 | -1.6 |
FR | up | do | up | eq | dodo | 228.3 | 230.4 | 230.4 | 231.8 | 1.5 |
ES | eq | up | do | eq | dodo | 199.3 | 198.8 | 198.2 | 198.0 | -0.7 |
