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Dear readers,
Like a perpetual motion machine: the Polish real estate market just keeps going and going and going. The Polish Real Estate Economy Index displayed positive development without significant upward or downward movement, with a rise of 0.5% in the first quarter. Foreign investors’ showed continued interest in Poland. Moreover, investments beyond the real estate sector, such as in securities and bonds, are not very attractive at the moment. That has resulted in returns on top office properties in Warsaw falling as low as 4%. That means returns in the Polish property market are increasingly converging with those in Western European real estate markets. But that is not scaring off investors. Quite the opposite: they just keep on buying. Seen objectively, the situation is bizarre: everyone expects the market to weaken, but there continue to be no signs of that happening. The transactions continue – like a perpetual motion machine...
Your Beata Latoszek
Contact
Ms Beata Latoszek
Managing Director Poland
Phone: +48 22 828 02 53
E-mail: Beata.Latoszek@Deutsche-Hypo.de
The consistency that characterised the Polish real estate market in 2018 has continued in early 2019. Compared to the previous quarter, the REECOX rose by just under one point, or 0.5%, to its current level of 187.6 points.
Meanwhile, the development of the input variables was somewhat contradictory.
The Polish leading share index WIG 20 rose slightly, by 1.6%, ending March at 2,312 points. The Polish real estate index WIG Developers presented a very different picture: Following decreases in the last three quarters, it saw a dramatic double-digit rise of 15.5% to approximately 2,213 points, above its level a year earlier. That is remarkable in that, apart from January 2018, this constitutes its highest level since 2011. However, according to the Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI), the assessments of Polish real estate experts do not point to further increases. Following a decline of 1.7% to 104.8 points, the index is at its lowest level since autumn 2017.
Country | Stock Index | Real Estate Economy Index | Economic Indicator | Base Interest Rate | Interest Rate 10-Year Government Bonds | Q4-18 | 01/19 | 02/19 | Q1-19 | Delta (%) Q4-18 / Q1-19 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DE | upup | up | do | eq | do | 298.2 | 303.4 | 300.8 | 303.4 | 1.7 |
GB | up | upup | dodo | eq | do | 204.9 | 205.5 | 200.7 | 205.1 | 0.1 |
PL | up | upup | do | eq | do | 187.5 | 185.9 | 186.5 | 187.6 | 0.1 |
NL | upup | up | do | eq | do | 191.3 | 190.4 | 190.7 | 191.4 | 0.1 |
FR | upup | upup | do | eq | do | 223.7 | 225.4 | 225.9 | 228.3 | 2.1 |
ES | up | upup | up | eq | dodo | 191.8 | 196.4 | 196.5 | 199.3 | 3.9 |
