Country Report Poland Q3-2019
“Poland has the potential to become Europe’s logistics hub.”

Dear readers,

The result of the parliamentary elections was eagerly awaited in October. It is now clear that the ruling party PiS will be able govern by itself in parliament. However, it is also clear that the party has lost its absolute majority in the senate. This means the government can no longer implement its legislative plans single-handedly going forward, which is causing representatives of the business community to look ahead with a great deal more optimism. As a result, sentiment has improved once again compared to the second quarter 2019. Office and logistics properties in particular are likely to continue benefiting in Poland. Polish logistics service providers are among the top players in Europe, giving Poland the potential to become Europe’s logistics hub. In contrast to retail, where forecasts are less optimistic, office property continues to experience strong demand. In Warsaw alone, 700,000 m2 of new office space are currently under construction. All the same, we will wait to see whether the confidence displayed by the business representatives is also reflected in measurable figures.


Your Beata Latoszek

Contact

Ms Beata Latoszek
Managing Director Poland

Phone: +48 22 828 02 53
E-mail: Beata.Latoszek@Deutsche-Hypo.de

Polish real estate sector shows no signs of weakness

Poland’s real estate sector has demonstrated relatively stable development over the past two years, while the other markets monitored by the REECOX have seen losses, some of which have been quite considerable. Although the REECOX Poland indicated stronger negative momentum overall in the third quarter with a decline of -1.0 % to 185 points, this cannot yet be regarded as weakness – particularly as the month-to-month changes in the recent past have been highly significant.

Real estate remains strong

Poland’s leading stock market index, the WIG 20, posted a considerable decline in the third quarter. July (-2.2 %) and August (-6.2 %) in particular contributed to this, while September leaves room to hope. Overall, the WIG 20 retreated by 6.6 % compared to the previous quarter to its current level of 2,173 points. Meanwhile, the WIG Developers real estate index has been continuing on its positive course. It had positive momentum for the third consecutive quarter, rising by +2.5 % to 2,300 points – a level it had not reached since June 2011. Business sentiment as reported by the Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) continued to fall, indicating a negative trend once again with a -0.9 % decline to 102.1 points.

Synopsis of Input Variables and Real Estate Economic Situations Q3-2019

Country

Stock Index

Real Estate Economy Index

Economic Indicator

Base Interest Rate

Interest Rate 10-Year Government Bonds

Q2-1907/1908/19Q3-19Delta (%)
Q2-19 / Q3-19
DE
eq
up
do
eq
do
296.6
296.2
295.4
295.6
-0.3
GB
eq
up
dodo
eq
do
198.9
198.6
192.7
189.5
-4.7
PL
do
up
eq
eq
dodo
186.8
186.5
184.9
185.0
-1.0
NL
up
up
up
eq
dodo
188.4
189.8
189.0
192.0
1.9
FR
up
up
eq
eq
dodo
231.8
232.1
232.8
234.7
1.3
ES
eq
up
eq
eq
dodo
198.0
198.6
199.8
199.0
0.5