Country Report Poland Q1-2021
“The ECB’s low-interest policy and the high rate of inflation in Poland is driving interest among private investors.”

Dear readers,

“Significant restrictions were imposed in Poland in the first quarter of 2021 due to the corona pandemic, and remain in place at the time of writing. The country is under a hard lockdown due to exploding infection numbers and the overall strain on the healthcare system. It is possible that hotels and retail will be able to open again following the public holiday on 4 May 2021, but this is not set in stone. In spite of the difficulties, prices for residential properties in the major cities of Warsaw, Gdańsk, Kraków, Wrocław and Poznań remain stable. There is a sufficient supply of capital on the lookout for investment opportunities. The ECB’s low-interest policy and the high rate of inflation in Poland is driving interest among private investors. Commercial properties are predominantly being sold to foreign investors. Logistics and specialist retailers remain the asset classes of choice. It continues to be difficult to make any reliable forecasts regarding the future development of the Polish real estate market. We can only hope that the pandemic subsides in the second quarter and economic and social activity returns to a semblance of normality. This should see the outlook brighten somewhat.”


Your Beata Latoszek

Contact

Ms Beata Latoszek
Managing Director Poland

Phone: +48 22 828 02 53
E-mail: Beata.Latoszek@Deutsche-Hypo.de

REECOX Poland continues upward trend

Poland was the only country monitored as part of REECOX to record positive performance throughout the first quarter of 2021. Overall, REECOX Poland climbed by 5.2 % compared to the previous year and now stands at 181.7 points, the highest value recorded since January 2020.

Significant increase in business sentiment

Poland’s benchmark index, the WIG 20, was trending positively at the end of the first quarter, but experienced declines in January (-1.8 %) and February (-2.1 %). As a result, the index closed the quarter down 2.3 % at 1,939 points. The WIG Developers real estate index was somewhat more robust. It rose by 9.3 % compared to the previous quarter to stand at 2,607 points. The positive overall performance in the first quarter was due to increases in January (+3.2 %) and February (+6.3 %). Unlike Polish share indices, the business climate as measured by the Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) performed positively throughout the first quarter. The business climate closed the quarter up an impressive 17.9 % compared to the previous quarter and stands at 90.3 points. 

Synopsis of Input Variables and Real Estate Economic Situations Q1-2021

Country

Stock Index

Real Estate Economy Index

Economic Indicator

Base Interest Rate

Interest Rate 10-Year Government Bonds

Q4-2001/2102/21Q1-21Delta (%)
Q4-20 / Q1-21
DE
upup
do
upup
eq
up
311.0
303.1
309.4
328.9
5.8
GB
up
up
upup
eq
upup
185.3
184.0
188.8
203.0
9.6
PL
do
up
upup
eq
upup
172.7
174.9
178.4
181.7
5.2
NL
upup
up
upup
eq
up
178.5
181.4
181.2
188.2
5.4
FR
upup
eq
upup
eq
upup
219.8
219.0
223.0
229.0
4.2
ES
up
up
upup
eq
upup
169.6
171.4
170.6
175.1
3.2